Thanks, interesting article. I still can’t figure out how the Republicans have taken over Iowa. They seem to do well in rural areas but in the past not in our larger metro areas. It’s not like the Iowa Republican Party has become more moderate in fact they are more extreme. I think farmers use to vote democratic. So what’s going on?
What's going on is the GOP's masterful messaging strategy of demonizing the other side with false narratives without talking about what if any governing accomplishes they themselves have (and it's actually very little). Fear of the other side is a tremendously successful political strategy. And then using FOX News, Sinclair Broadcasting and other right wing media to serve as their echo camber. Hence most Republican voters didn't go to the polls to vote FOR their candidate, but to vote AGAINST the other candidate. It's incredibly deceitful.
Just joined, Ed, and you are a big reason I miss the Quad Cities, your political/historical acuity and "call it as you see it" is quite refreshing. That said, Iowa is going the way of Florida, at least on a state level, and is less and less purple and becoming garnet red. Scott county has always been a bell weather county and is like a pendulum, but I don't think the rest of the state is that way. West of I-35 is staunchly red, and now the entire suburbs of Des Moines are a deep shade as well. If you take the populations of those areas off the board, there just isn't enough votes out there any longer for any state Democratic candidate. I had a long conversation with my dad about how this trend can change (it involved heavy national $$ investment into rebuilding a ground game approach) but short of some serious out-of-state investment, I don't know how Iowa doesn't become Florida in the next few campaign cycles. Thanks for providing this platform and your valuable insight. Living in DC/Northern Virginia I am very much in a bubble and its refreshing to see real politics of real people.
I think the new Senate District #47 had a really interesting race. I'm curious as to your thoughts relative to the newly created district's voting, general composition, and any thoughts relative to the State Senate outcome. Thanks, Mike
Hi, Mike. There was a ton of money, relatively speaking, that went into that race. It was an open seat because Roby Smith ran for state treasurer. Bettendorf, Eldridge and Davenport east of Jersey Ridge Road, so a decided GOP advantage.
Still, because it was an open seat, it drew a lot of money. I don't have performance numbers for the new district, but Bleeding Heartland said it went for Trump in 2020 and Reynolds in 2018 (when the county as a whole went for the Democrat at the top of the ticket in those years.) In the end, it was a pretty convincing win for Scott Webster.
Just wondering if the Democratic traditional coalition is breaking apart. Traditionally highly educated liberals, minorities, unions and the "working class" made up the coalition. My guess is the unions don't have the same control over their membership and many of the rank and file or now Republicans at least when they get in the voting both.
Hey, Dan. Below is a link to an interesting piece in the Washington Post from last year that talks about "working class" voters veering toward Republicans for years (and that Trump actually stalled the trend). There have been plenty of studies and news stories on this subject, especially since Trump won in 2016.
I'm not a social scientist, but as long as I've been here, Scott County has swung back and forth politically. I tend to think none of these swings are permanent and are mostly affected by the candidates on the ballot, especially those at the top.
Thanks, interesting article. I still can’t figure out how the Republicans have taken over Iowa. They seem to do well in rural areas but in the past not in our larger metro areas. It’s not like the Iowa Republican Party has become more moderate in fact they are more extreme. I think farmers use to vote democratic. So what’s going on?
What's going on is the GOP's masterful messaging strategy of demonizing the other side with false narratives without talking about what if any governing accomplishes they themselves have (and it's actually very little). Fear of the other side is a tremendously successful political strategy. And then using FOX News, Sinclair Broadcasting and other right wing media to serve as their echo camber. Hence most Republican voters didn't go to the polls to vote FOR their candidate, but to vote AGAINST the other candidate. It's incredibly deceitful.
Appreciate the historical context and commentary.
Just joined, Ed, and you are a big reason I miss the Quad Cities, your political/historical acuity and "call it as you see it" is quite refreshing. That said, Iowa is going the way of Florida, at least on a state level, and is less and less purple and becoming garnet red. Scott county has always been a bell weather county and is like a pendulum, but I don't think the rest of the state is that way. West of I-35 is staunchly red, and now the entire suburbs of Des Moines are a deep shade as well. If you take the populations of those areas off the board, there just isn't enough votes out there any longer for any state Democratic candidate. I had a long conversation with my dad about how this trend can change (it involved heavy national $$ investment into rebuilding a ground game approach) but short of some serious out-of-state investment, I don't know how Iowa doesn't become Florida in the next few campaign cycles. Thanks for providing this platform and your valuable insight. Living in DC/Northern Virginia I am very much in a bubble and its refreshing to see real politics of real people.
I think the new Senate District #47 had a really interesting race. I'm curious as to your thoughts relative to the newly created district's voting, general composition, and any thoughts relative to the State Senate outcome. Thanks, Mike
Hi, Mike. There was a ton of money, relatively speaking, that went into that race. It was an open seat because Roby Smith ran for state treasurer. Bettendorf, Eldridge and Davenport east of Jersey Ridge Road, so a decided GOP advantage.
Still, because it was an open seat, it drew a lot of money. I don't have performance numbers for the new district, but Bleeding Heartland said it went for Trump in 2020 and Reynolds in 2018 (when the county as a whole went for the Democrat at the top of the ticket in those years.) In the end, it was a pretty convincing win for Scott Webster.
Just wondering if the Democratic traditional coalition is breaking apart. Traditionally highly educated liberals, minorities, unions and the "working class" made up the coalition. My guess is the unions don't have the same control over their membership and many of the rank and file or now Republicans at least when they get in the voting both.
Hey, Dan. Below is a link to an interesting piece in the Washington Post from last year that talks about "working class" voters veering toward Republicans for years (and that Trump actually stalled the trend). There have been plenty of studies and news stories on this subject, especially since Trump won in 2016.
I'm not a social scientist, but as long as I've been here, Scott County has swung back and forth politically. I tend to think none of these swings are permanent and are mostly affected by the candidates on the ballot, especially those at the top.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/04/14/trump-didnt-bring-white-working-class-voters-republican-party-data-suggest-he-kept-them-away/