Waves and ripples

Republicans win big in Iowa and Scott County

Photo by Clay Banks on Unsplash

Nationwide, Tuesday’s election so far seems to have resulted in a Red Ripple, with pundits figuring Republicans will still probably win the U.S. House but acknowledging the massive wave of GOP victories some had predicted just didn’t materialize.

In Iowa, there is no doubt about what happened on Tuesday: A wave of crimson washed over the state, with Gov. Kim Reynolds and, to a lesser extent, U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley winning easily, carrying a lot of other Republicans across the finish line with them.

According to unofficial results, the offices of attorney general and treasurer are flipping to the Republicans. Also, State Auditor Rob Sand, a Democrat, is in a very close race with Republican Todd Halbur.

Here in the Quad-Cities, which has tended to be a purple bastion in a state that has shifted red overall, Republicans swept to convincing wins, too.

The GOP won the most competitive state legislative seats in the county and even swept the three Board of Supervisors seats.

Unofficial results say Republicans Ross Paustian, John Maxwell and Jean Dickson all won board seats.

What that means in all likelihood is that there won’t be a single Democrat on the board next year. (Tony Knobbe, a Republican supervisor, will depart to become county treasurer and most likely will be replaced by a Republican.)

Perhaps the only bright spot for Scott County Democrats was Recorder Rita Vargas’ narrow win over Republican Michele Darland.

All of this is based on unofficial results. The Vargas/Darland race is pretty close. So is the Iowa House District 81 contest, with Republican Luana Stoltenberg holding a narrow, 29-vote lead over Democrat Craig Cooper, 5,062 to 5,033. I wouldn’t be surprised to see recounts requested in both races.

Democrats Cindy Winckler, Monica Kurth and Ken Croken won their races Tuesday, but they were in relatively safe districts and the Republicans didn’t field candidates against them.

Republicans Norlin Mommsen, Gary Mohr and Chris Cournoyer also won in districts tilted to the GOP.

In the state legislative races that appeared to be the most competitive, Republicans Kerry Gruenhagen, Scott Webster and Mike Vondran won on Tuesday, with longtime state Rep. Phyllis Thede, a Democrat, ousted from office.

Republicans even won the county attorney’s office (the last time that happened was in the 1970s.)

The GOP also retained the county auditor’s office.

For all the talk throughout Tuesday of a big voter turnout across the country, there was a noticeable drop in Scott County from 2018. Then, 69,543 people cast ballots; this year, it was 63,524.

A 6,000-vote decline is a pretty good indication the irregular voters that Democrats count on just didn’t turn out the way they did four years ago. (Recall, four years ago Kim Reynolds lost Scott County to Democrat Fred Hubbell by about 2,400 votes; this year, she defeated Democrat Deidre DeJear by more than 7,000 votes in Scott County.

That had to hurt Democrats down the ballot.

Scott County has retained its purple status because Democrats have been competitive at the top of the ticket here. Democrats Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton won the county in 2020 and 2016, respectively. But in this election, the top of the ticket shifted to the right.

The national political climate hasn’t been good for Democrats in Iowa, and candidates like DeJear and Mike Franken didn’t get the financial support from the party apparatus outside the state to be truly competitive, if that was possible.

Reynolds, in particular, has held a significant financial advantage over DeJear.

I don’t think Tuesday’s result necessarily means Scott County has gone full-on red. It takes more than one election to fully shift colors. But Tuesday night’s results pointed in that direction.

Just look at the race for the 1st District congressional seat.

Two years ago, in the contest between Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democrat Rita Hart, Scott County swung to Hart by about 5,500 votes. Tuesday night, it was Miller-Meeks who won, by about 3,500 votes.

In Clinton County, Hart won by about 2,000 votes two years ago. On Tuesday, Miller-Meeks won the county by roughly 2,700 votes.

This is a bit of apples and oranges, because Tuesday was a midterm election and 2020 was a presidential year. Also, Hart was a regional favorite. Still, that’s still a big swing toward the Republicans.

In 2020, Hart kept the overall race close, in part, by scoring wins in these two Mississippi River counties and staying competitive in other counties along the river.

That didn’t happen this time.

According to unofficial results, Miller-Meeks won roughly 57% of the vote among the seven counties that border the Mississippi River.

One of the reasons former Rep. Dave Loebsack, a Democrat, was able to withstand Republican waves in 2010 and 2014 was: A) He was the incumbent. And B) he was able to tamp down his losses in rural areas while running up wins in places like Scott and Clinton counties.

If Democrats expect to win the 1st District congressional seat again, they have to find a way to swing Mississippi River counties back to their side.

The same is true with statewide races. In 2012, Barack Obama won Iowa, and he did it in part by running up the numbers in swing areas like Scott County, where he won by more than 12,000 votes over Mitt Romney.

Since then, it’s been trouble.

Democrats at the top of the ticket were competitive here in 2016, 2018 and 2020, but they didn’t win by nearly enough to offset losses elsewhere in the state.

On Tuesday, they didn’t even do that.

As a result, the red wave that flooded Iowa also washed over Scott County, where it previously had been held at bay.