The no-surprise Iowa caucus

Trump's win was expected, but the event still offers some lessons about Iowa and the Iowa GOP.

Donald Trump campaigns in Ames last year. This is from C-SPAN coverage in September.

One of the most famous—and fun—aspects of the Iowa Caucuses are the surprises they offer.

The bounce they deliver to an underdog. The humbling to a front-runner.

On Monday, there were no surprises.

Donald Trump won big—as expected.

Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley finished far behind, in second and third, respectively.

If there was any surprise, it was how few Iowans turned out. The last estimate I saw was about 110,000, or 15% of registered GOP voters. That’s a far cry from the 185,000-200,000 that had been mentioned early on.

The horrible weather surely played a part. Undoubtedly, so did the monthslong drum beat that Trump was going to win. Why turn out if the outcome is already determined, right?

Some analysts suggest the relatively low turnout could be a sign of a lack of enthusiasm for Trump. I don’t know. It was awfully cold. I also suspect even if there had been a big turnout—which in Iowa only means perhaps 30% of registered Republicans—the result may well have been the same.

Beyond our borders, I suspect there isn’t much that Iowa says about the rest of the primary campaign. Trump is the front-runner. Haley and DeSantis are long shot candidates. DeSantis even more so, given that he failed in a state that he gambled so heavily on.

There are some lessons we can draw about Iowa and Iowans from these caucuses, however:

First, on the biggest questions facing them, the most involved Iowa Republicans take their cues from Donald Trump, not Kim Reynolds.

Some—including me—thought Reynolds’ endorsement of DeSantis would play a more significant role; that Iowa Republicans would see Trump as a bigger electoral risk this fall than somebody like DeSantis or Haley.

Reynolds even said that Trump “can’t win.”

That argument didn’t sell. Neither did Reynolds’ personal support.

Now the Iowa governor has to limit the damage. She said Monday on Fox she’ll back Trump if he’s the Republican nominee. Which isn’t surprising. Reynolds’ endorsement was a reflection of her doubts about Trump’s electability—not, say, that he tried to overturn an election, incited a violent insurrection and now faces 91 criminal charges, including that he absconded with top-secret documents from the American government. Go figure.

Reynolds doesn’t make many political miscues, but this is one of them. A 30-point loss has to hurt.

I suspect Iowans won’t forget this, but most will forgive. Trump will do neither.

Another lesson: Ann Selzer’s polls continue to be the best measurement of sentiment in Iowa on the caucuses. The last Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll before Monday’s event had Trump winning by 28. That was pretty much on the mark.

Yes, the poll had Haley in second, and DeSantis overperformed a bit. But for the most part, the poll got it right.

A third lesson: Iowa Republican caucus-goers are woefully out of step with the rest of the country on the issues most central to Donald Trump and his campaign.

Just look at the question of Joe Biden’s 2020 election win. Only 29% of Iowa caucus-goers say it was legitimate, according to the entrance poll Monday. And only 11% of those voters backed Trump. However, a Washington Post/University of Maryland survey published a couple weeks ago said 62% of Americans believe Biden’s election was legit, including 66% of independents. Those figures have slipped a little bit from three years ago, as Trump has continued to whine about his 2020 loss, but it’s still a huge disconnect between Trump supporters and the rest of the country.

Also, 65% of Monday’s caucus-goers said Trump is fit to be president even if he’s convicted of a crime. Again, that’s not what the wider electorate believes. An AP/Ipsos poll last month said 59% wouldn’t vote for Trump if he were convicted of a felony, including 66% of independents.

We also learned from the 2024 caucuses that Iowa did its traditional job of winnowing the field. A year ago, several Republicans came here hoping Iowa would give their campaigns a jump start. And even in Trump’s shadow, they got the chance to make their case. People like Mike Pence, Tim Scott and Doug Burgrum. They just didn’t take.

Now the field has been pared to three. Which is what Iowa does—it gives three tickets out.

With Iowa now done, it’s on to New Hampshire. I’d say Haley has an outside chance to overtake Donald Trump, but she has to win New Hampshire and South Carolina and a lot of other stuff has to go right, too. That likely won’t happen. DeSantis, again, has even less chance.

The bottom line: Iowa Republicans made Donald Trump the clear front-runner. But they did something else. They chose the guy who is their weakest general election candidate. In that, they gave somebody else a gift on Monday: Joe Biden.

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