Iowa Poll, debate add some clarity to GOP campaign

Trump leads, but it's more of a race than many believe

Two of the biggest developments in the 2024 Republican presidential primary came this week, and they leave me convinced of two things:

1.       Donald Trump is the front-runner.

2.       This race is far from over.

The first item is obvious.

On the second, I’m a bit of an outlier.

Most news analysts treat Trump as the presumptive nominee. Especially columnists on the left.

Why am I not convinced?

First, let’s take the Iowa Poll, which was released Monday. The gold standard poll that, for decades, has best measured the opinions of Iowa caucus-goers said Trump leads with 42%, followed by Ron DeSantis at 19%. The rest of the candidates were in single digits.

This is a good poll for Trump, no doubt. Evangelicals, a strong force in Iowa, prefer Trump and two-thirds of likely caucus-goers care more about a candidate agreeing with them on the issues rather than their ability to win. This is a blow to the others who argue Trump can’t win against Joe Biden.

So, why am I skeptical about a Trump win in Iowa?

Partially, it’s instinct. As much as Iowa Republicans love Trump, it’s hard to believe they’ll ignore the clear evidence he was a drag on Republicans in the 2018 and 2022 midterms. And no matter what they believe about the 2020 election, Joe Biden is still president.

With Trump in the news, Republicans tend to lose.

Another reason: Iowans tend to make up their minds at the last minute.

There was plenty of evidence in the poll that most Iowa Republicans are still thinking about their choices.

History suggests a propensity for change.

Take the Iowa Poll in August 2015.

Back then, Trump was the clear leader with 23%, followed by Ben Carson with 18%.

Ted Cruz was still in Scott Walker territory, with 8%.

Three months later, Cruz surged to a big lead and eventually won the caucuses.

Yes, his win was powered by evangelicals who now say they like Trump, but I’m not convinced they’ll stick with Trump to the end. They want to win, too.

Through the years, I’ve mostly thought of Iowa caucus-goers has driven by practicality. Even though the latest Iowa Poll suggests otherwise at this point, as we get closer to Jan. 15, that will likely change. (Think 2004, when Iowa Democratic caucus-goers went with John Kerry instead of Howard Dean, who had been an early leader.)

Another reason: Kim Reynolds. Iowa’s popular governor has been emphasizing all over the place that Republicans are playing to win, and that national polls — which show Trump with a bigger lead than even the Iowa Poll — don’t reflect what she’s seeing on the ground.

“I can tell you, it’s just not reflective of what I’m hearing from Iowans as I’m traveling around,” she told CNN during the Iowa State Fair.

Is there anybody who knows Iowa Republicans better than Kim Reynolds?

We’ll see.

Now the debate, held Wednesday night in Milwaukee.

If you read the initial media reports, Ron DeSantis was a dud. A non-factor.

Yet, later, the Washington Post released a poll of Republican primary and caucus voters who watched the debate and 29% said DeSantis performed best. Vivek Ramaswamy came in second with 26%, and Nikki Haley was next at 15%.

The debate — and the media coverage — will be absorbed by caucus-goers. They may not be influenced by political endorsements, but they care what their neighbors think.

Trump’s status as a quasi-incumbent to many Republican voters might make the race less fluid than in the past, but there undoubtedly will still be some shifting. We’ll see how much.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Ramaswamy makes some gains in Iowa after the debate. Media reports said Google searches for his name surged afterward. And while Iowans haven’t been overly impressed with Ramaswamy even though he’s spent plenty of time in the state (he only got 4% in the Iowa Poll) they may now be taking a second look at him.

If the Post poll is right about DeSantis, perhaps the debate will help him in Iowa, too, despite the smell of death most news reports attach to him.

But DeSantis will have to grow some guts and unequivocally challenge Trump’s record. That doesn’t mean taking on his false election claims or talking about the indictments. Republicans won’t respond to that. But Nikki Haley pointed the way in the debate with her biting criticism of soaring debts under Trump, not to mention his unpopularity among regular Americans.

Then, there’s illegal immigration, Obamacare and Trump’s electoral record. Border apprehensions rose under Trump (before the pandemic), he failed to get rid of Obamacare and he was a clear drag on Republican candidates in the 2018 and 2022 midterms.

All these issues could be fertile ground to attack Trump from the right.

Haley, who also was in single digits in the Iowa Poll, may have earned more attention because of her debate performance. Her tutoring of Ramaswamy on foreign policy and her directness in taking on Trump — a turnabout from her past opinions of him — cut through the noise.

DeSantis should adopt Haley’s approach. Resolve, if not consistency, sells.

Beyond Iowa, however, it looks like the only way to stop Trump will be for the other candidates to consolidate behind a single alternative to the ex-president.

Perhaps after Iowa and/or New Hampshire votes, we’ll have a better idea who that person is.

At that point, if it’s not already too late, the non-Trump candidates who no longer are viable must put their own careers aside and care more about their party and their country.

Republican leaders haven’t been willing to make this sacrifice before. Instead, they have cowered.

Still, these things can happen with little notice.

If they don’t, no matter how Iowa votes, Republicans may be stuck with Trump as their nominee, with all the risk it entails. And so will we all.

Along the Mississippi is a proud member of the Iowa Writers Collaborative. Please check out the work of my colleagues and consider subscribing to their work.

Laura Belin, Iowa Politics with Laura Belin, Windsor Heights

Doug Burns: The Iowa Mercury, Carroll

Dave Busiek: Dave Busiek on Media, Des Moines

Stephanie Copley: It Was Never a Dress, Johnston

Art Cullen, Art Cullen’s Notebook, Storm Lake

Suzanna de Baca: Dispatches from the Heartland, Huxley

Debra Engle: A Whole New World, Madison County

Julie Gammack: Julie Gammack’s Iowa Potluck, Des Moines and Okoboji

Jody Gifford: Benign Inspiration, West Des Moines

Rob Gray: Rob Gray’s Area, Ankeny

Nik Heftman, The Seven Times, Los Angeles and Iowa

Beth Hoffman: In the Dirt, Lovilla

Iowa Writers’ Collaborative, Roundup

Dana James: New Black Iowa, Des Moines

Pat Kinney: View from Cedar Valley, Waterloo

Fern Kupfer and Joe Geha: Fern and Joe, Ames

Robert Leonard: Deep Midwest: Politics and Culture, Bussey

LettersfromIowans, Iowa

Tar Macias, Hola Iowa, Iowa

Darcy Maulsby: Keepin’ It Rural, Lake City

Alison McGaughey, The Inquisitive Quad Citizen, Quad Cities

Kurt Meyer, Showing Up

Wini Moranville, Wini’s Food Stories, Des Moines

Jeff Morrison: Between Two Rivers, Cedar Rapids

Kyle Munson: Kyle’s Main Street, Iowa

Jane Nguyen, The Asian Iowan, West Des Moines

John Naughton, My Life, in Color, Des Moines

Chuck Offenburger: Iowa Boy Chuck Offenburger, Jefferson and Des Moines

Barry Piatt: Behind the Curtain, Washington, D.C.

Dave Price: Dave Price’s Perspective, Urbandale 

Macey Spensley: The Midwest Creative

Larry Stone, Listening to the Land, Elkader

Mary Swander: Mary Swander’s Buggy Land, Kalona

Mary Swander: Mary Swander’s Emerging Voices

Cheryl Tevis, Unfinished Business, Boone County

Ed Tibbetts: Along the Mississippi, Davenport

Teresa Zilk: Talking Good, Des Moines

Also, please read the work of our alliance partner, Iowa Capital Dispatch. It provides hard-hitting news along with selected commentary by members of the Iowa Writers Collaborative.