How the Haley-DeSantis fight might play out in Iowa

Both are seeking to be the Trump alternative

Oct 21, 2023

red and blue building illustration — Photo by Clay Banks on Unsplash

For quite a while, the most pivotal question in the Republican presidential primary has been this: Who, if anybody, will emerge as the clear alternative to front-runner Donald Trump?

Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis both believe they’re the answer to that question, and they’ve sharpened their public attacks on each other as a result.

Over the past few days, we’ve seen the two trade jabs over how to respond to the Israel-Hamas war, and it’s being done in increasingly pointed terms.

DeSantis took liberties with some of Haley’s remarks on the issue of Gazan refugees, falsely accusing her of wanting the US to take them in. Haley’s side is now accusing DeSantis of desperation in a 90-second video that lampoons the Florida governor’s underperforming campaign, then pivots to Haley taking a hawkish stand on the war.

You can read the various accounts of the back and forth between the two candidates in several publications, including the Wall Street Journal, USA Today and National Review.

What does this mean in Iowa?

First, the fight between DeSantis and Haley isn’t terribly surprising.

Haley has had some good debate performances and clearly has gained momentum in this race — and with less than three months until the Iowa caucuses, there’s not a lot of time left to make a move.

Meanwhile, as we’ve all seen, DeSantis has shrunk in the polls. And according to the national polling average at RealClearPolitics, Haley is in third place, behind DeSantis.

More importantly, she’s in second place in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Don’t think this is going unnoticed in Iowa.

Here, DeSantis continues to hold second place, with Haley in third. But that could easily change. As anybody who’s followed Iowa politics knows, voters here don’t get locked into their positions until late. And while people like me have been waiting for these late-breaking voters to shrink Trump’s current lead, they may also exact a toll on DeSantis.

Iowans don’t like to vote for a loser, and if they smell defeat on DeSantis, they’ll be more prone to jump ship. That could help Haley.

DeSantis has been putting a lot of effort into Iowa, and reports are that he’s built a good ground game. That could provide him some cushion here. But as David Kochel, the longtime political consultant from Iowa, said on Robin Johnson’s Heartland Politics program on WVIK a few days ago, “momentum matters more than mechanics.”

Kochel also said he has seen polling in Iowa that shows Haley and DeSantis running fairly close.

If Haley were to do better than expected in Iowa, then ring up strong performances in New Hampshire and South Carolina (where she was once the governor), this could set up that one-on-one confrontation with Trump that traditional Republicans have been yearning for — and that most analysts believe is the only way to stop the ex-president from winning the nomination.

The question now is, what will Haley do to capitalize on this moment?

One path is to continue highlighting her foreign policy experience. She already dissected Vivek Ramaswamy in the debates over security issues. Taking on DeSantis on this front might be a good way to emphasize her experience and her role in the Trump administration.

For voters who still like Trump but have doubts about his electability, this might be a way to siphon some of those voters away from DeSantis.

The scrap between DeSantis and Haley also may complicate things for Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds.

Reynolds has been close to DeSantis. And during the Iowa State Fair, Reynolds opened the door to a possible endorsement.

At the time, I suggested Reynolds’ decision whether or not to endorse would depend in part on how much risk she wants to take.

Endorsements are tricky for officeholders. Supporters of the candidates who don’t get the nod are bound to be angry, and at some point, Reynolds is going to have to face those voters again.

In addition, this summer DeSantis was still looking like the strongest Trump alternative; now, that’s not really the case. Would Reynolds really take the risk of endorsing a candidate whose long-term prospects weren’t so good?

It seems unlikely.

Either way, the Haley/DeSantis scrap has injected some drama into a contest that, for the most part, has been fairly static.

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