Kim Reynolds looks down the road

Will she endorse before the caucuses?

Aug 20, 2023

Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds at the Iowa State Fair with Republican presidential hopeful Asa Hutchinson. (Photo: Robin Opsahl/Iowa Capital Dispatch)

One of the most intriguing developments amid the presidential politics at the Iowa State Fair were these words from Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds.

“I may change my mind down the road…”

The subject: Her neutrality in the 2024 Republican presidential race.

Back in February, as reported in the Des Moines Register, Reynolds’ message seemed pretty clear: She wouldn’t endorse anybody before the Iowa Caucuses. That’s the tradition among Iowa’s governors, though it’s not always observed. (Terry Branstad endorsed Bob Dole in the 1996 caucuses.)

In February, Reynolds said that her role was to get candidates to come here and help them get their message in front of Iowans. Staying out of the fight was key to doing that.

“If I weigh in, I don’t know if they’ll feel all that welcome,” the governor said.

She’s still saying much the same now, but in an interview with Fox News, Reynolds also opened the door to an endorsement.

The governor hosted a series of “fair side chats” with the candidates and told Fox how she was hoping to draw more Iowans so they could hear their message.

“They’re very knowledgeable about the issues. They’re certainly not afraid to ask really tough questions, and I think that that is a win not only for our candidates, but for the process. And so that’s, I think, how I try to bring some value to the process. Staying neutral was part of that. You know, I may change my mind down the road, but right now, it’s really important that I get them here, get them in front of Iowans….”

Reynolds didn’t specifically say she might endorse before the caucuses, but the caucuses were clearly the context of the conversation in the clip Fox posted, and that’s how the network presented it. (I tried to get clarification from Reynolds’ office Friday afternoon but was not successful.)

Here’s how CNN, which also interviewed the governor at the fair, reported on the prospect of her staying neutral:

“I don’t think you should ever say, ‘Never, never,’” Reynolds said when pressed on whether she’s ruling out endorsing closer to the January 15 Iowa caucuses. “We’ll see what happens. I’ve made it clear, probably looking at neutral, especially in the beginning.”

Of course, the Trump campaign already believes Reynolds is favoring Ron DeSantis.

The New York Times reported last month that Reynolds appeared to be “softening the ground” for DeSantis, and that Trump’s team had noticed.

“Trump advisers have snickered privately about her having neutrality-in-name only,” the Times said.

After the story ran, Trump attacked Reynolds on social media, suggesting she owed him because he was responsible for her winning her close race with Democrat Fred Hubbell in 2018.

Reynolds allies have pointed out how ridiculous this assertion is. One ally said Trump was, in fact, a drag on the ticket in 2018.

So, what to make of the idea of a Reynolds endorsement?

First, it would carry some risk for the caucuses. Reynolds was right in February. Candidates might not come to Iowa if they think the deck is stacked. That’s true in 2024 … and perhaps beyond.

It would also be risky for the governor. Reynolds is immensely popular with Iowa Republicans right now, but picking a side in such an important race has the potential to anger supporters of the candidates who don’t get the nod.

It’s not as if Trump would take the slight gracefully, either. And who knows how long he’ll figure in Republican politics, even if he doesn’t win the nomination.

This could complicate future races for a governor who, at least according to the political media, is sitting on top of the world right now. Is it worth the risk?

I don’t know how important endorsements are in the caucuses, anyway.

Tom Harkin endorsed Howard Dean in 2004, and Dean lost.

Terry Branstad didn’t endorse before the caucuses in 2016, but he made it clear Ted Cruz shouldn’t win. Cruz won, anyway.

Even in 1996, Dole won but it was Pat Buchanan who got a bigger bounce by beating expectations.

I remember when George W. Bush was notching congressional endorsements in Iowa before the 2000 caucuses. I asked an Iowa adviser to a Bush rival about it, and he scoffed at their significance: Iowans don’t take their cues from a congressman when choosing a president, he said. They make up their own minds.

It’s true Bush won Iowa in 2000, but caucus-goers had plenty of other reasons to back him.

I think that adviser was right. Iowa caucus-goers may consider endorsements, but they’re generally not high on their list of factors.

One important note: If Reynolds were to endorse before the caucuses and Trump attacks her — which he inevitably would — that could have the potential to push people away from him. Especially if he attacks with the kind of viciousness he’s known for. And if it comes late, when Iowans traditionally make up their minds, it could have an outsized impact.

It’s clear that a Republican winning the White House is of primary importance to Reynolds. In the end, I think most Iowa Republicans will make that same judgment, that winning matters most, not a grudge match. Or spending the general election focusing on courtrooms.

If the race comes down to just two candidates late, it’s possible Reynolds will jump in if she thinks one of those choices is too risky in a general election — and it doesn’t carry much risk for her.

If not, and if the race is more than a two-person race, my bet is she’ll continue to sit it out.

Still, it’s intriguing the governor was saying say she might make an endorsement “down the road.”

It probably was as newsworthy as anything else that came out of the state fair.

Along the Mississippi

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