Fighting for scraps
Legislature fiddles, while much of Iowa struggles
For 25 years, I’ve been a bit of a nerd about demographics.
It started back before the 2000 Census, when I thought the newspaper that I worked for should report on how the Quad-Cities had changed over the previous 10 years. There also was a Census conference in Boston, where I’d never been, and the hotel for the event was near Fenway Park.
So, I convinced the boss to send me.
The consequence, however, has been ever since then, I’ve been alert to new government data documenting the changes in our state's population and demographics.
In Iowa, it’s not a dynamic field.
Most people know Iowa doesn’t grow much and, despite some changes in the 1990s and 2000s, we’re still a mostly white state.
Stagnation has its consequences. Our labor force doesn’t grow the way it should in order to lure and expand business. Meanwhile, the continued exit of young Iowans leaves us with fewer people to provide the level of innovation our economy and culture need.
Also, over the years, we have seen an ever-stronger concentration of growth in just a handful of Iowa counties, increasingly centered on the counties that surround the Des Moines area.
The rest of the state is left scrambling for the scraps, if they grow at all.
We got further proof of this trend last week with the release of new population estimates for the 3,100-plus counties across America.
What the figures say is that a whopping 90% of the population increase in the counties that did grow in Iowa between July 1, 2021, and July 1, 2022, came in just six counties: Dallas, Polk, Johnson, Warren, Madison and Marion.
Five of those counties include or are adjacent to the Des Moines area. (A caveat: These are estimates, not direct head counts, so they are subject to some error).
Overall, there was growth in 27 counties, one didn’t change, and 71 counties shrunk in population.
Have you heard one word about this in the Iowa Legislature?
It's not like this is the first time we've seen a report like this.
You’d think a problem that’s hobbled us for decades would motivate people who run our state.
Wrong. Our 2023 session is consumed with debate over banning books and which bathrooms kids should use.
When Republicans running the show do come up with an idea to expand our labor force, the best they've got is changing the rules so we can squeeze more work out of teenagers.
Check that. They're also continuing to make life difficult for the people who have lost their jobs and are trying to redeem the unemployment benefits they paid for. Make it tougher for the relatively few jobless, the logic goes, and they'll be forced to take the first low-paying job that comes along.
If all this looks like legislators tinkering around the edges, your eyesight is just fine. Your vision is better than theirs.
If you think these policies will keep young people in the state, ask them. If you can catch up to them as they head out the door.
Iowa as a whole grew by fewer than 3,000 people between mid-2021 and mid-2022.
That put us 30th in the nation, just above Wyoming and North Dakota.
Woo-hoo!
The main reason for our "growth" is that people from foreign countries moved here — despite many in this state sending a message they’re not welcome.
Meanwhile, a net 7,292 Iowans choose to leave here to go to other, more attractive states.
In Scott County, we did grow a bit, even as across the Mississippi River, Rock Island County shrunk, according to the estimates. But as we learned after the 2020 Census, the government has had problems accurately estimating Illinois’ population, so beware. In 2020, the government estimated the state was losing people, but last year said Illinois had actually grown.
All estimates, including in Iowa, should be treated with caution, but the basic trends here are well established. Iowa isn’t growing much, and most of the counties in the state are shrinking.
They used to talk about these problems in the Legislature back in the 1980s and ‘90s. But now, it’s all about the culture war.
None of this helps the economy in rural counties. Arguably, it makes it worse. I’d also note the Legislature’s most significant action this year was to devote nearly $350 million in taxpayer money each year to accounts for private schools, which are mostly concentrated in urban areas.
Republicans in the Legislature have taken another big step. They’ve radically lowered the income tax for the state’s wealthy and corporations. This, they seem to think, will change things.
I’m skeptical.
Over the past 30-plus years, Iowa has consistently moved to lower taxes, whether it's eliminating the property tax on machinery and equipment or reducing them on malls and other commercial properties.
Still, we stagnate.
Kim Reynolds made it a point to say during last year’s elections that, in Iowa, “we know boys from girls.” But neither she, nor anybody else in Des Moines, has figured out a way to keep those boys and girls from moving to other states.
So, we talk about books and bathrooms.
I suppose when you have no new ideas, you just change the subject.
It’s too bad Iowans let them get away with it.
Our national obsession
If you’re like me, maybe the worst thing about Donald Trump’s indictment is that it puts him again at the center of our national conversation.
On Saturday, the headline on my Washington Post app was about the Secret Service's tour of the New York criminal courts building, where Trump will be arraigned on Tuesday.
On Sunday morning, NBC News’ top story also was looking ahead to Trump’s arraignment. The network even helpfully provided a graphic showing what Trump’s motorcade route was likely to be from his hotel to the criminal courts building.
I envision an OJ-like fixation when Trump makes his way to the courthouse where, as the report noted, it still was not clear whether the former president would have to submit to a mugshot. (On Monday, the Post was asking the same question and even had a story about the famous people throughout history who were photographed with a number under their faces.)
The indictment of a former president is, of course, newsworthy. The big front-page headlines the first day were warranted. But the full immersion coverage that’s transpired since then is not.
I think it’s helpful to know that, among other nations, the indictment of a former president is not unprecedented. It’s “fairly common,” according to the New York Times. And because Trump has modeled his political persona not along the lines of any previous US president, instead preferring foreign strongmen, maybe we shouldn’t be surprised he’s facing charges, too.
One other thing: A lot of the pundits are saying this indictment can only help Trump politically. I have my doubts about that. I suspect what it will do is remind regular people of the excessive drama that characterized each day of the Trump presidency — and no matter the controversy, we could all be assured of one thing: It was more about him than it was about us.
So, we await Tuesday when the news media will surely train its cameras and drones on Trump’s motorcade. We already got a preview of this as he left Florida to head to New York on Monday.
The only thing missing was AC and the white Bronco.
Along the Mississippi is a proud member of the Iowa Writers Collaborative. Please check out the work of my colleagues and consider subscribing to their work.
Laura Belin, Iowa Politics with Laura Belin, Windsor Heights
Doug Burns: The Iowa Mercury, Carroll
Dave Busiek: Dave Busiek on Media, Des Moines
Art Cullen, Art Cullen’s Notebook, Storm Lake
Suzanna de Baca: Dispatches from the Heartland, Huxley
Debra Engle: A Whole New World, Madison County
Julie Gammack: Julie Gammack’s Iowa Potluck, Des Moines and Okoboji
Jody Gifford: Benign Inspiration, West Des Moines
Beth Hoffman: In the Dirt, Lovilla
Dana James: New Black Iowa, Des Moines
Fern Kupfer and Joe Geha: Fern and Joe, Ames
Robert Leonard: Deep Midwest: Politics and Culture, Bussey
Tar Macias, Hola Iowa, Iowa
Kurt Meyer, Showing Up
Pat Kinney, View from Cedar Valley, Waterloo
Kyle Munson: Kyle’s Main Street, Iowa
Jane Nguyen, The Asian Iowan, West Des Moines
John Naughton, My Life, in Color, Des Moines
Chuck Offenburger: Iowa Boy Chuck Offenburger, Jefferson and Des Moines
Barry Piatt: Behind the Curtain, Washington, D.C.
Macey Spensley: The Midwest Creative
Mary Swander: Mary Swander’s Buggy Land, Kalona
Mary Swander: Mary Swander’s Emerging Voices
Cheryl Tevis, Unfinished Business, Boone County
Ed Tibbetts: Along the Mississippi, Davenport
Teresa Zilk: Talking Good, Des Moines
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Ed I appreciate you being a little "edgy" with this article. I'm accustom to Ed Tibbetts the journalist, who values balance, fairness and accuracy but you are now a commentator that is writing about what is happening and I appreciate it.
I find the term "Woke" by Republican to be extremely offensive. The one definition I read was that being "Woke" is a fake state of awareness only achieved by dummies that try to find justice everywhere except in their own behavior. Based on this definition I wonder if the Governor and legislature are just spewing more "Woke" thinking. The bottom line is their solution to all problems is to cut taxes and this includes their strategy for growing our population. Unfortunately there is no evidence that strategy works and not the reason why our children move away.
Thanks Ed. Axios had a story about Iowa’s brain drain. https://www.axios.com/local/des-moines/2022/10/04/iowa-brain-drain-cost-state-college-educated-adults. Ed is absolutely right about the attention to Iowa population losses by Iowa government in the 80’s and 90’s. Back then, if I remember correctly, both parties in the legislature bemoaned population losses.