The aftermath of the Harris-Trump debate is key to determining its impact
And a Swift endorsement
Remember the “Dean Scream?”
The moment when, after losing the Iowa caucuses in 2004, Howard Dean gave a speech to his supporters, yelling at one point that despite his poor showing, he wasn’t quitting, he was moving on. To New Hampshire. To South Carolina. And Oklahoma. And Arizona. And North Dakota. His voice rising, he concluded with a verbal blast, best approximated in print as, “Yaaaaaaahhh!”
In the days afterward, it was all the media talked about. The Dean Scream.
The coverage badly damaged Dean. More than the speech itself. It wasn’t long before he was out of the race.
Some analysts say presidential debates are similar in that while the debates themselves are important, the coverage that follows often does more to shape voter perceptions than the event itself. I think there is a lot to be said for that. In other words, the next few days will be key in determining the lasting impact of the debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
In the immediate aftermath, most analysts are saying that Harris won. Even the Wall Street Journal’s rightwing editorial board said so. I agree. She was prepared and demonstrated confidence and strength. She used the first half hour of the debate (the most important) to talk about her economic ideas; she effectively contrasted her views on abortion with Trump.
Frankly, I think she should have spent more time on both these issues, but she said it when it mattered.
Trump, on the other hand, was Trump. There were a lot of lies and a hyper-focus on immigration. Even to the point where he claimed immigrants were eating the dogs, cats and pets of the people in Springfield, Ohio. In-state and national news reports have debunked the online claim, citing city officials as well as local police. Still, Trump claimed it was true.
Trump did try to tie Harris to President Biden’s economic record, which was probably his best play of the night.
My initial instinct is the debate won’t move a lot of voters. Many, but not all, of the most memorable moments centered on Trump, and polls show most people already have well-developed opinions on the former president. More importantly, if Trump’s criminal conviction in New York on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records has only a limited impact on the polling, what will a single debate do? (Who knows, maybe Taylor Swift’s post-debate endorsement of Harris will change that dynamic.)
Still, if the debate does have an impact on undecided and potential voters in the six or so key battleground states, I suspect it will be because the vice president gave them sufficient information about who she is and how she might govern. People who are open to her, but not quite sold, can now envision her as the president. They also have a better idea who she is.
A number of news organizations talked to undecided voters and got a mixed response.
That said, the coverage over the next few days and weeks will be vitally important to shaping the debate’s overall effect. I think Harris could build on her performance by continuing to drive her economic message.
As for the debate coverage, I hope it centers more on what the candidates said rather than their facial expressions. Already, we are seeing worrying signs that this sort of superficiality is affecting news reports.
Still, it was a memorable night. If you didn’t see the entire debate—and don’t want to rely on news coverage—go online and watch it yourself. It will be 90 (plus) minutes well spent.
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Ed I appreciate your balanced reaction but think you are perhaps less enthusiastic than what her performance indicated to me and the polls already out from the “undecided”. 90 percent said she won the debate and the numbers from Republicans isn’t much better. She got Trump to show his ridiculous and outlandish approach to governing and his negative views of America. I only wish she talked more about the current administrations great economic results like the lowest unemployment in 50 years , a GDP that far exceeded any year Trump was president, stock market at record levels, more jobs created than any year Trump was president and long overdue infrastructure needed. While inflation was high for 18 months actual incomes surpassed inflation numbers. Let’s not forget what caused inflation to rise, which includes shortages due to the pandemic and very aggressive monetary policy with 0 interest rates of which the current administration had no control over. And finally Trump left office with the biggest deficits are country has ever seen. I understand Harris needs to differentiate herself from Biden but she does need to run from their success.
My guess is it won't move anyone an inch. Harris was poised and well prepared. Trump just put on his George Patton war face and doubled down on his racist xenophobic mantra that his followers love. She did pin him in a corner on his treasonous inciting of the Jan. 6 riot: he said somebody just asked him to make a speech. Wonder who--the guy in the mirror? He also misquoted himself on his own "Will be wild!" tweet before the event. And who, pray tell, is gonna make it wild, sir?
I still remember the woman who talked for him at the caucus I attended. She said they might as well stick with Trump because "they're coming for us anyway." Who exactly is coming for whom? I think we know. Trump's fans think he's going to save the white people from the folks who aren't and the foreigners. So that's justification for overthrowing the government. The bottom line here is Trump's ruthless manipulation of people in pursuit of gratifying his own vainglory.
Walz likened it to shutting down a bully from his days as an educator. The sooner people lose their fear of standing up to him, the better off we all will be. Harris stood up to him with a look and a smile.
Debates don't win elections by themselves, but they can lose them. It all comes down to getting your supporters out to vote. And like it or not, you better know how to read an Electoral College map. 2016 should have taught everyone that.