Is Iowa, and America, ready for a change?
New Iowa poll causes a stir, and some hope
Iowa just won’t accept it's not a presidential swing state.
We’ve been part of the action for so long, it seems, we just refuse to be ignored.
These thoughts ran through my head Saturday night when I saw the new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll that said Vice President Kamala Harris was leading Donald Trump in the state, 47% to 44%.
The poll hit the political world like a tidal wave. For quite a while now, the state of Iowa has been relegated to the sidelines of presidential politics once the caucuses end, consigned to the red column, a safe space for Trump and other Republicans.
However, if you were watching the cable networks Monday, you heard lots of talk about Iowa. The Iowa Poll, anyway, and whether it suggested a wider shift in the national electorate, maybe even in the swing states that get regular visits from the candidates.
There has been plenty of debate over the last couple of days whether the poll is on the mark; whether it is an early sign of a Harris win—or a rare miss by J. Ann Selzer, who is probably the most reputable pollster in the US.
Selzer has a knack for rooting out shifts in the electorate long before others.
I remember the first time I truly realized Donald Trump had a reasonable chance to win the 2016 presidential election was when I saw a Selzer poll—although it was not in Iowa.
It was a poll that her firm conducted for Bloomberg Politics in Ohio in September of that year. The poll said Trump was winning by five points over Democrat Hillary Clinton.
As Politico put it at the time, the poll “diverge(d) from other public polling …”
Trump went on to win Ohio by eight points—and, of course, the election.
I’m not going to dissect this new Iowa Poll. Plenty of others have done that since it came out. (It’s only one poll. It’s an outlier. If Iowa is close, why hasn't Harris, or Trump, campaigned in the state?)
Still, a remark Selzer made on a Bulwark podcast over the weekend stuck with me. She mentioned the new poll found that two Iowa congressional districts are tilting toward the Democratic candidates, notably the 1st District contest, and said: “It may be, in fact, that these congressional races are driving the presidential race toward the Democrat.”
Both of the 1st and 3rd district races are tossups, and if you live in Iowa, you know the Democrats in these contests have heavily focused their message on abortion. A lot of money has gone into both of these races.
Legislative Democrats also are focusing heavily on abortion, especially Iowa’s 6- week abortion ban.
The ban is unpopular in this state, according to the Iowa Poll, and Democrats hope it will galvanize the electorate here, especially women.
I had coffee with a Harris supporter on Sunday, and he told me he found himself in the odd position of hoping that Selzer was right this time.
I understood what he meant. For a while now, we have seen Iowa Polls capturing the leading edge of the state's swing toward Republicans.
In 2014, it was a Selzer poll that said—much to the surprise of Democrats and many in the news media—that Republican Joni Ernst held a comfortable lead over Democrat Bruce Braley in a high-profile US Senate race. She also captured the rise of Donald Trump in this state.
Each time, Iowa Democrats hoped Selzer was wrong.
Each time, she wasn't.
I have been convinced the last few years that most Americans were ready to move past the chaos and corruption of Donald Trump.
I've never really been sure, however, whether this was wishful thinking or astute political analysis.
I thought it might happen in the 2024 Iowa caucuses, when I anticipated Republicans would seize the opportunity to ditch Trump and elevate a successful, politically talented governor, Ron DeSantis. He even had the backing of Iowa’s own successful and politically talented governor, Kim Reynolds.
I was wrong then. But maybe not now.
Perhaps this time, Iowa is ready for a change. Maybe the country, too.
Like my friend this weekend, I hope that, once again, Ann Selzer is right.
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Ed, Yes, change is coming. Shortly after President Biden decided not to run the atmosphere of the whole country seemed to wake-up. I have never been so positive that the election tomorrow will be a landslide victory for Harris and the Democratic party. Why? The people are tired of HATE AND DIVISION---Harris is full of Optimism and new hope. Trump and the GOP are dead---they want to live in the past and have no policy on how to help the other 97%. The polls may say that the race is 49-49---But, you and I know they are just trying to keep TRUMP happy. The race is all but over, DEMOCRACY WILL LIVE AT LEAST FOR FOUR MORE YEARS.
Thank you, Ed. I believe there are additional factors at play here. As Selzer noted, “It may be, in fact, that these congressional races are driving the presidential race toward the Democrat.” It’s possible that the legislative candidates themselves are motivating voters to push back against Iowa’s Republican-led government on issues like abortion, private school vouchers, eminent domain and pipelines, as well as nursing home oversight. Notably, Selzer’s survey didn’t cover pipelines, nursing homes, or gun policies, which are significant issues for many voters.
This election presents Iowans, particularly independents who are often overlooked, with a critical opportunity to express their dissatisfaction with Governor Reynolds, Attorney General Bird, and the legislature—and, by extension, perhaps even members of our federal delegation.