Finally, it's time for the Iowa caucuses

I have a reminder and a prediction

Photo by Jon Tyson on Unsplash

For more than a year, I’ve waited for the pragmatic Iowa Republican to show up in the polls.

These are the Republicans that Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley—and Kim Reynolds—have been banking on, the ones who think Donald Trump is too big a risk to run against Joe Biden.

So far, these pragmatists haven’t shown up.

It could be because Biden’s weakened political standing has emboldened Republicans. The polls say Trump is competitive with Biden right now. Or it could be because Republicans aren’t enthused by DeSantis, or that Haley’s conservatism is out of step with today’s GOP.

Or it may be that Republicans just love Trump.

Yet, on the cusp of the Iowa Caucuses, I offer two thoughts before the voting begins.

First, even with the polls in near unanimity suggesting a big Trump win, Iowa has a penchant for surprises.

Think Pat Robertson in 1988 or Pat Buchanan in 1996. Or, of course, Rick Santorum in 2012.

Add to this history a massive winter snowstorm that just pounded Iowa and record cold temperatures (minus-30 wind chills) that are threatening to upend what heretofore had been expectations for a caucus with perhaps 185,000-200,000 people attending.

As anybody who knows Iowa will tell you, even in normal times, it’s hard to predict the size and composition of the Iowa electorate. In this kind of weather, it’s almost impossible.

To be sure, like most everybody else, I expect Trump will win Iowa. It’s hard to argue with a 30-point lead in the polls. Now, the only real question seems to be what the final margin will be.

Still, for those Iowa Republicans who are prone to the kind of pragmatism DeSantis, Haley and Reynolds are preaching, they may want to consider my second point: Trump’s standing right now is about as good as it’s going to get.

We all know he faces a raft of criminal charges, and he won’t let go of his constant complaints about the 2020 election. Presuming he goes on to win the nomination, this will hurt him going forward. But I think Trump has peaked for other, more fundamental, reasons.

First, and perhaps most importantly, the economy is getting better, the stock market is rising, and inflation is moderating, even as prices remain higher than they once were.

Trump’s ads in Iowa ignore this, but make no mistake, Americans are noticing the country’s better economic conditions. Consumer confidence is rising, and it has 10 more months to keep going up.

In other words, barring a sudden turnaround, the economy has punished Biden about as much as it’s going to.

Another big reason I think Trump has peaked is because, over the next year, Biden and the left will bombard Americans with an unprecedented amount of TV ads and messaging that will remind all those people who don’t love Trump why they rejected him in 2020.

They’ll be reminded—relentlessly—of all the reasons why Trump’s approval rating sunk to record lows when he left office.

In one poll, he was down to 29%, which is 10 points lower than where Biden stands right now.

It won’t be pretty.

There’s a reason Democrats have made Trump the issue in every election since 2016. Because it works.

Remember the Red Wave of 2022?

Iowa Republicans also might want to remember this: Kim Reynolds only won a narrow victory over Fred Hubbell in 2018. And part of the reason it was so close was Trump. Top Iowa Republicans said Trump was a drag on the ticket, not the savior he claims to be.

Think about that: If Reynolds had lost, all those wins in the Legislature—the tax cuts, the private school subsidies, the abortion ban—would never have happened.

The truth is that, since 2016, when voters are reminded of Trump, they punish Republicans. Haley and DeSantis don’t have that history.

Democrats haven’t really begun making their case against Trump yet. Not in an all-out, well-funded, focused campaign. But they will.

Right now, only one out of five Americans is paying close attention to the presidential race, and about half aren’t really paying any attention at all.

This may be difficult for Iowa Republicans to believe because they’re being inundated with politics right now, but it’s true. It’s also about to change. And Trump will get hurt by this dynamic more than Biden.

Why?

Because as much as Trump faces scrutiny from the left and the media, the general public isn’t as dialed into him—yet— like they are Biden.

It’s different for sitting presidents. Even when there isn’t a political campaign on, presidents are always on the hot seat. When bad news happens, the president takes the brunt. They never get a break.

Trump will soon face that kind of scrutiny when all those voters who aren’t paying attention start tuning in.

In other words, I think Trump has farther to fall than Biden.

CNN reported the Biden’s team’s internal polling says half of the undecided voters in this country don’t even believe that Trump will be the GOP nominee. They’ll be reminded soon. And not in a good way.

Everybody knows a Trump-Biden race will be close. But I think it’s also important for Iowa Republicans to know this: Trump’s high point will likely be when the voting starts at your caucus site on Monday.

From there, it won’t get any better.

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