A new study says the Illinois Exodus is exaggerated.

And Davenport keeps things under wraps.

Photo by Tucker Good on Unsplash

For years, it’s become an article of faith that people are fleeing Illinois in droves. The Chicago Tribune’s editorial board has a name for it: The Illinois Exodus.

However, a new study argues that this so-called gusher of people leaving the state is exaggerated. And as the Tribune’s news pages put it, the study says Illinois is becoming “less rural, more educated, more foreign-born, and higher paid…”

The Along the Mississippi newsletter usually focuses on Iowa, but what happens in Illinois matters to all Quad-Citians.

We may be bisected by a river, but we are one community. We have an integrated economy. Thousands of people live on one side of the river and work on the other. Many of the companies here operate on both sides of the river or do business with counterparts across the river. For as long as I have lived here, our area’s political and economic leadership have emphasized that our interests are aligned; that we are one Quad-Cities.

Still, we know the two sides of the river are different, at least in terms of population. Scott County is growing, while Rock Island County is getting smaller. In 1990, there were only about 2,000 more people in Scott County than Rock Island County. By 2020, that gap had grown to 30,000.

Politicians often point to Illinois state government as the culprit. It was common for former Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, after being elected in 2010, to come to the Quad-Cities and poke fun at the recent tendency of some Illinois governors to go to prison. That didn’t exactly engender good bi-state vibes, but that’s the way it was.

The main takeaway I got from this new study, which was conducted by researchers at the Illinois Economic Policy Institute and the Project for Middle Class Renewal at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, is this: There is a highly complex movement of people in and out of the state and that faulty population estimates and a tendency to overlook foreign immigrants are masking what is really happening with the state’s population.

These faulty estimates created the expectation the state would lose nearly a quarter million people between 2010 and 2020. But when the actual head count was done three years ago, the federal government said the state had only lost 18,000 people. Then, a post-Census survey found that Illinois’ population was likely undercounted by about 2%.

It’s true Illinoisans are moving to other states in greater numbers than are moving in from other states — what is called domestic migration — but that information shouldn’t be seen in isolation. Most of those losses are being offset by immigrants coming from other countries.

That’s a lesson Iowa’s political leaders should heed. Iowa loses people to other states, too, and it’s not growing much overall. But more immigrants moving in would help.

I’ve generally been skeptical that people move because of taxes. There is no doubt that property taxes are higher in the Illinois Quad-Cities than in Iowa. Still, I’ve found in my career that surveys say families relocate mostly because of economic opportunities or family reasons.

This new study says that 39% of the people who moved from Illinois to other states between 2013 and 2022 cited job reasons. Family reasons were cited by 23%. Housing was cited by 22%, which could include local taxes as a factor.

“While it may be true that some people have chosen to move out of Illinois and have bought homes in lower-tax jurisdictions where their annual property taxes are lower or where there are no estate taxes,” the study says, “the typical outbound mover is nearly 7 years younger, averages $16,000 less in household income, and is significantly less likely to be a homeowner (30 percent) than those who stay in Illinois.”

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the cost of living, including property taxes, play a role in the movement of some people in the Quad-Cities. But I’d also note one of the reasons often cited over the years for the population disparity in this area is the availability of land for development.

The authors of this study make several recommendations about how to keep and attract people. They include exercising good fiscal management and making college affordable. They also say to invest in under-resourced communities, including Downstate. That includes spending money on infrastructure, such as broadband internet.

One finding from the report is that while those population estimates were flawed for the Chicago area, they were more accurate in Downstate Illinois.

Illinois clearly has its challenges, but this study offers important context about growth and where and why it happens.

Keeping things under wraps in Davenport

The Quad-City Times’ Sarah Watson has an article Friday about the committee that Davenport Mayor Mike Matson appointed to investigate the allegations that an alderman used a racial slur.

Fifth Ward Alderman Tim Kelly, who is Black, has said Alderman Robby Ortiz, 4^th Ward, used a racist term during a conversation with him. Kelly also said other aldermen were present at the time and nobody objected. The Times reports Ortiz said he never made racist statements and has filed a lawsuit in the matter, alleging Kelly defamed him.

Matson has appointed a 6-person panel to investigate the matter and, according to the Times, the group met last week and even forwarded a recommendation. The article says the identities of the people on the committee were disclosed and their investigation will continue.

Unfortunately, nobody at City Hall is disclosing to the newspaper what this group talked about last week — or what the recommendation is.

This is troubling. It’s bad enough that when Kelly said at a city council meeting last month that a colleague whom he didn’t name at the time used the N-word and then defended its use that not a single member of the council spoke up to say that using such a racial slur is wrong. Now, the city’s response, at least so far, is shrouded in too much secrecy. According to the article, Matson said the committee decided to keep its deliberations confidential.

This does not serve the people of Davenport well. The public has a right to judge the city’s response to this episode — and in real time.

If a recommendation was made, what is it?

How was it arrived at, and what were the considerations?

What is the committee’s plan for this investigation?

It’s readily apparent there will be an election in less than a month, and it is important that people get access to important information before they vote, not after. Clearly, knowing more about this episode is something Davenport voters have a right to factor in when choosing their leaders. And people do care about this. They care about how members of the council interact and the words they use.

No public good is done when answers on a matter of public interest are kept secret. This group was convened because this is something to take seriously. But when information is withheld about how the group is doing its work, it doesn’t serve the people well. I might add, it’s also the kind of thing the people remember when they go to vote.

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Laura Belin, Iowa Politics with Laura Belin, Windsor Heights

Doug Burns: The Iowa Mercury, Carroll

Dave Busiek: Dave Busiek on Media, Des Moines

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Art Cullen, Art Cullen’s Notebook, Storm Lake

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Alison McGaughey, The Inquisitive Quad Citizen, Quad Cities

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Wini Moranville, Wini’s Food Stories, Des Moines

Jeff Morrison: Between Two Rivers, Cedar Rapids

Kyle Munson: Kyle’s Main Street, Iowa

Jane Nguyen, The Asian Iowan, West Des Moines

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Chuck Offenburger: Iowa Boy Chuck Offenburger, Jefferson and Des Moines

Barry Piatt: Behind the Curtain, Washington, D.C.

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